{
  "asOfDateToronto": "2026-10-16",
  "status": "private_review_draft_not_published",
  "priceProduct": "Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD spot",
  "timeBasis": "UTC",
  "eventConvention": "D is calendar event date, not exact announcement time.",
  "returnFormula": "100*(close(D+n)/close(D-1)-1)",
  "preEvent30DayReturnFormula": "100*(close(D-1)/close(D-31)-1)",
  "oneYearFollowup": "Four completed D+365 event-date windows; fixed 365 calendar days. The 2026 case is observed only through Oct16 2026 (D+230); no extrapolation to Feb28 2027.",
  "dailyCloseDrawdown": "Minimum of close/rolling maximum(close), including baseline D-1 close and D..D+n closes. Not intraday peak-to-trough.",
  "worstLowFromBaseline": "Minimum daily low in D..D+n divided by D-1 close minus 1. Not event-attributable loss.",
  "oiProduct": "Binance USD-M BTCUSDT perpetual only",
  "oiTimeWindow": "D-1 23:55 UTC to D+1 23:55 UTC",
  "oiUnit": "BTC base-asset quantity; nominal value separately retained in USDT. OI changes do not identify forced vs voluntary closing or account leverage.",
  "funding": "Realized eight-hour settlement percentages, decimal value multiplied by 100. Prior-day mean averages three settlements; D0/D1 min uses six settlements. Not annualized.",
  "liquidations": "Reported historical CoinGlass snapshots via named publishers, not independently reconstructed. Reporting windows differ and may overlap; no sums across snapshots. Amounts concern liquidated position notional, not investor equity loss.",
  "qualityChecks": {
    "oiFiles": 20,
    "oiRowsPerDay": 288,
    "oiTotalRows": 5760,
    "fundingMonthlyFiles": 8,
    "fundingTotalSettlements": 717,
    "missingOrInvalidOIDays": 0
  },
  "excludedEvidence": [
    {
      "source": "https://beincrypto.com/iran-israel-bitcoin-crypto-market-crash/",
      "reason": "Reported total USD962.40m conflicts with long USD771.76m + short USD199.63m = USD971.39m; not reconciled, excluded."
    },
    {
      "source": "CoinDesk Feb28 2026 aggregated funding -6%",
      "reason": "Unclear annualization in article; not comparable with eight-hour realized Binance rates; excluded from funding table."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Five selected illustrative cases, no complete conflict universe or causal inference.",
    "Single spot venue and single derivatives contract; USD price and USDT derivatives are distinct.",
    "No market-adjusted abnormal returns, matched non-event controls or statistical significance claims.",
    "No same-window complete BTC-specific historical liquidation tape; missing does not mean zero.",
    "Later returns include monetary policy, crypto credit, ETF and other shocks; not attributed entirely to war.",
    "D+365 for Feb28 2026 is unavailable because horizon not complete."
  ],
  "sources": {
    "coinbaseDocs": "https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/exchange-api/rest-api/products/get-product-candles",
    "binanceArchive": "https://github.com/binance/binance-public-data",
    "sourceURLsAndHashes": "price-sources.json and derivatives-source-audit.json"
  },
  "creditUse": 0,
  "socialPublications": 0
}